Midland, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

108
FXUS63 KDTX 082244
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
644 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter-like temperatures and wind chills through tonight.

- A mix of rain and snow is expected over much of the area late
Wednesday through Thursday.

- Warmer temperatures are forecast this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gradual decline of existing VFR stratocumulus this evening, as
drying commences within prevailing northwest flow. High pressure
maintains limited cloud coverage overnight, while winds diminish in
magnitude while backing to west and then southwest with time.
Retention of a dry low level environment ensures prevailing VFR
throughout Wednesday. Mid level moistening ahead of an approaching
low pressure system will bring a thicknessing higher based cloud.
Winds holding from the south-southwest through the day.
Precipitation chances increase Wednesday evening north of the low
tracking across the Ohio valley.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet early this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025

DISCUSSION...

Increasingly confluent flow aloft allows high pressure to ease into
the Great Lakes from the west the rest of today into tonight. Before
it arrives, a stratocumulus layer will continue to produce spotty
light snow showers across the area before releasing to the east this
evening. This sets us up for a period of clear skies tonight which
will allow for favorable radiational cooling given a dry boundary
layer. This process will be disrupted by an area of mid level clouds
arriving during the pre-dawn hours, but should still have enough
time to dip well into the 20s for a very chilly start to the day
Wednesday.

Southerly return flow ensues after sunrise tomorrow as the high
moves out, allowing slightly milder air to begin working in. This
will be accompanied by overcast skies so temperatures are only
progged to rebound into the lower to mid 40s for a high - still some
10 degrees below normal. Should stay dry through the day, but then a
Pacific wave is expected to usher in the next round of precip during
the evening and overnight. Divergence via upper jet coupling and PVA
will provide support for synoptic lift, with the resultant surface
low tracking along the Ohio Valley providing mesoscale lift via
fgen/deformation on its northern flank. This ascent persists through
the night into Thursday morning before winding down. However,
intervals of lighter precip may linger well into Thursday afternoon
as additional waves of vorticity pivot overhead while the surface
low slowly passes across Ohio.

The bulk of the precip will be across the southern half of the
forecast area, tied closer to the surface low. Thermal profiles will
be sub-freezing except for within the lowest 500-1000 ft, supporting
mainly a melting snow character. The exception will be east of the
glacial ridge where easterly wind off the relatively mild western
Lake Erie basin (water temps in the 40s) will locally bolster the
near surface melting layer, resulting in mainly rain. Per the latest
NBM there is a 20 to 40% chance for measurable snow, mainly along
and just north of the glacial ridge, and only a 10 to 15% chance for
over 1 inch. The latest ensemble runs have trended slightly lower
with mean snowfall totals as a result of a lower amplitude upper
wave, but are still generally supportive of the potential for 1 to 2
inches if the colder solutions verify and/or if mesoscale banding is
able to develop over the area. This outcome remains low probability
given expectations for a melting snow pytpe and generally modest
omega located below the relatively high DGZ. Latest QPF progs
through Thursday range from a tenth of an inch in the north to
around a half inch in the south.

Unsettled, chilly weather persists on Friday as upper troughing
remains stalled over the area, but this is followed by rapid height
rises and high pressure that bring more favorable spring conditions
this weekend. High temps are likely to return to the 50s and 60s
with dry conditions and a good amount of sunshine. The next system
arrives Monday night into Tuesday, bringing the next chance for rain
and possibly thunderstorms if instability can build in ahead of its
cold front.

MARINE...

Northwest winds have dropped below 20 knots across the nearshore
waters late this afternoon, and will only become lighter tonight as
high pressure continues advance into the Central Great Lakes
tonight. Will allow the small craft advisory to expire at 4 PM.

Light southerly winds develop tomorrow as a surface low tracks
through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night-Thursday bringing
snow/wintry mix and rain to the Central Great Lakes. The system will
track into the eastern Great Lakes late in the day, allowing winds
to become northeast, persisting right into Friday.

Although northeast winds to not look to top out much past 20 knots,
the prolong nature and unstable low level profiles could be enough
for waves building above 4 feet across the southern Lake Huron basin
and impacting the nearshore waters.

Surface high pressure expected to slide through the Great Lake
region over the weekend, promoting generally light winds and low
waves.

HYDROLOGY...

A low pressure system tracking along the Ohio Valley will bring
widespread rain and melting snow across southern Lower MI late
Wednesday into Thursday. Storm total precipitation amounts between a
quarter and half inch are most likely for areas south of I-69 with
less to the north. These amounts may cause minor rises on area
streams and rivers but the longer duration of precipitation is not
expected to bring flooding concerns.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.